Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 44
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781484384732
ISBN-13 : 1484384733
Rating : 4/5 (733 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? by : Mariana Colacelli

Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? written by Mariana Colacelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-28 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.


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