How Useful is the Carry-Over Effect for Short-Term Economic Forecasting?
Author | : Karl-Heinz Tödter |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 52 |
Release | : 2016 |
ISBN-10 | : OCLC:1306165126 |
ISBN-13 | : |
Rating | : 4/5 ( Downloads) |
Download or read book How Useful is the Carry-Over Effect for Short-Term Economic Forecasting? written by Karl-Heinz Tödter and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.