A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends

Download or read book A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends written by Albert Rex Bergstrom and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-04-16 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last thirty years there has been extensive use of continuous time econometric methods in macroeconomic modelling. This monograph presents a continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom incorporating stochastic trends. Its development represents a major step forward in continuous time macroeconomic modelling. The book describes the model in detail and, like earlier models, it is designed in such a way as to permit a rigorous mathematical analysis of its steady-state and stability properties, thus providing a valuable check on the capacity of the model to generate plausible long-run behaviour. The model is estimated using newly developed exact Gaussian estimation methods for continuous time econometric models incorporating unobservable stochastic trends. The book also includes discussion of the application of the model to dynamic analysis and forecasting.