Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models

Download or read book Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models written by Arturo Ormeno and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting model for inflation. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in fitting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in fitting macro and survey data simultaneously. In other words survey data contains additional information that is not present in the macro data alone.