Interpreting poll data as a prediction of election outcomes is a practice as old as the field, rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what poll data means.

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades

“An engaging, beautifully synthesized page-turner” (Slate). The #1 New York Times bestseller and Time #1 Nonfiction Book of the Year: Hillary Rodham Clinton

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, p

In the early 1980s, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., developed a system for predicting the outcomes of presidenti