Mean Variance Causality between the Official and Parallel Currency Markets

Download or read book Mean Variance Causality between the Official and Parallel Currency Markets written by Angelos Kanas and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the issue of mean and variance causality across four Latin American official and black markets for foreign currency using the corresponding monthly exchange rate against the US dollar for the period 1976-1993. Specifically, we apply an EGARCH-M model to study the behaviour of the Argentinian peso, the Brazilian cruzeiro, the Chilean peso and the Mexican peso against the US dollar. Furthermore, we apply a recent test due to Cheung and Ng (1996) in order to test for the existence of any causality and volatility spillovers among these official and black markets for foreign exchange. The main findings of the analysis are: (i) In contrast to the findings of previous studies using monthly rates, EGARCH-M processes characterize each bilateral exchange rate series in both markets; (ii) There is substantial evidence of causality in both mean and variance with the causality in mean largely being driven by the causality in variance; and (iii) The results indicate that the major exporter of causality is the Mexican black market with the black market of Argentina and the black and official markets of Brazil being the least contributors.