Improving the Analytic Contribution of Advanced Warfighting Experiments

Download or read book Improving the Analytic Contribution of Advanced Warfighting Experiments written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of the study is to help the Army get the maximum analytic contribution from Advanced Warfighting Experiments (AWEs)-or future similar analysis efforts involving combinations of live, virtual, and constructive simulations. This research extends and demonstrates the framework for credible analysis using Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS). The "Credible Uses" (CU) framework was one product of previous research documented in Dewar et al. (1996). A key component of the CU approach is that it explicitly links experiments to decisions. In what follows we describe an example of how this framework would be applied, using for concreteness the context of an Advanced Warfighting Experiment (AWE) named Focused Dispatch (FD). The Focused Dispatch and other AWEs are really a series of experiments. Most of the experiments are constructive and virtual. The AWEs, including FD, often culminate in a live training exercise (analysis experiment). Our exemplar analysis was conducted in parallel to the actual analysis done as part of Focused Dispatch. It is notional and addresses only a small portion of the issues being studied in Focused Dispatch. The challenge of Focused Dispatch and other AWEs is that of credible analysis using (a) models that are only weakly predictive of the results that would occur in real combat and (b) data that come from single or rare events. That is, model outcomes are not reliable enough to be considered quantitative predictions of potential real-world outcomes with known uncertainties. AWEs and similar efforts are instrumental to the Army's efforts to support the development of Force XXI. Therefore, the Army will face these challenges repeatedly in the coming years.