Essays on Learning, Information, and Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

Download or read book Essays on Learning, Information, and Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Gene Ambrocio and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on learning and expectations formation in Macroeconomics and Finance and the role of information production in shaping macroeconomic fluctuations. The first chapter provides a theory of information production to explain two features of modern business cycles. In my theory information is produced along two dimensions, a pro-cyclical quantitative margin and a counter-cyclical qualitative margin, that generates both slow recoveries and episodes of "rational exuberance" where optimistic booms tend to end in crises. The second chapter provides supporting evidence for the proposed cyclical variation in private information production using term loan data in the United States. Finally, the third chapter documents biases in terms of over-optimism and overconfidence in forecasts of real GDP growth from the survey of professional forecasters in the United States.